Category Archives: Inflation

By Graham Summers, MBA Well, it’s finally happening! Throughout 2023, I warned that inflation was not really disappearing from the financial system. Time and again I noted that the ONLY data in the inflation measure that had declined was energy prices.  … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA Governments around the world are issuing staggering amounts of debt to “paper over” any weakness in the private sector with public spending. As Bloomberg notes, collectively, the U.S., U.K., E.U., and Japan will issue $2 trillion … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA Since early 2023, numerous pundits and gurus have been calling for a recession. And despite numerous indicators flashing that one is coming… the recession has yet to arrive. Why? This:  The U.S. is running a GARGANTUAN … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA Inflation is back. While mainstream economists prance around on television claiming that inflation has been defeated, the real data suggests otherwise.  It’s a well known “secret” on Wall Street that the official inflation measure, the Consumer … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA As I noted a few weeks ago, inflation likely bottomed in July. By quick way of review, the official inflation metric, the Consumer Price Index or CPI, is measured on a year over year basis. So, … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA Inflation has very likely bottomed for 2023.  The inflation data published in the U.S. is based on year over year comparisons. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out at 5%, what it’s really stating is … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA As I’ve noted in our last two articles, the $USD has begun a significant decline against most major currencies (the Euro, the Pound and the Franc). And the only reason it is showing relative strength against … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA As I’ve noted in our last two articles, the $USD has begun a significant decline against most major currencies (the Euro, the Pound and the Franc). And the only reason it is showing relative strength against … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA Last week I outlined a major development in the currency markets. That development? That the U.S. dollar has begun to decline against nearly every major currency (the Euro, Pound, and the Franc). The U.S. dollar peaked … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA Something major is brewing in the currency markets. Throughout much of 2021 and 2022, the $USD rallied aggressively, rising from 90 to 112. The driving force behind this move was the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy: … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA There are two primary reasons why inflation has remained so persistent despite the Fed raising rates from 0.25% to 5.25% in the span of 14 months. 1)     The Fed is using the wrong tools to end … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA There are two primary reasons why inflation has remained so persistent despite the Fed raising rates from 0.25% to 5.25% in the span of 14 months. 1)     The Fed is using the wrong tools to end … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA There are two primary reasons why inflation has remained so persistent despite the Fed raising rates from 0.25% to 5.25% in the span of 14 months. 1) The Fed is using the wrong tools to end … Continue reading →

By Graham Summers, MBA One of the biggest questions we hear from clients is “why aren’t stocks breaking down?” The answer is simple: the government. The Fed is fighting inflation. The government is NOT. The Fed is raising interest rates … Continue reading →

It’s worse than I imagined. I had initially thought that the current debt ceiling deal would feature a small amount of spending cuts in 2024.  In reality, it will feature NO CUTS and will in fact open the door to … Continue reading →